On February 24, 2026, I fully committed fresh capital into two new positions: Aubay SA (EPA:AUB) and Campine NV (EBR:CAMB). This pushed the portfolio to 21 names, overshooting my self-imposed limit of 20: my annual bonus salary provided an opportunity to expand, but it has also diluted the focus required for high-conviction tracking.
Invested right before the storm
My timing preceded a geopolitics shock with US and Israel’s war on Iran, which has reintroduced a fear premium to European equities. While the portfolio maintains a healthy +19.4% growth at the time of its 1-year birthday, it has suffered from the recent market turbulence.
| Performance since start, Time Weighted | +40.8% |
| Performance since start, Money Weighted | +19.4% |
| Performers | 1-month € Gains |
|---|---|
| Heijmans | +1,346 |
| Exosens | +575 |
| Parrot | +555 |
| Losers | 1-month € Loss |
|---|---|
| Ariston | -1817 |
| Maire | -678 |
| Campine | -576 |
Aubay (EPA:AUB)
Aubay reported a strong 2025 revenue growth (+11.4%) and is guiding for further margin expansion to 9.5% in 2026. Its very low debt-to-equity ratio (22%) should make it resilient to temporary activity slowdowns.
I have read many negative headlines suggesting that its business model is threatened by AI. I agree that AI will increasingly take over much of the thinking and coding, and will require fewer programmers and consultants making slides. However, my thesis is that much of Aubay’s value proposition lies in implementing IT solutions within legacy environments and supporting cybersecurity and infrastructure. These areas where AI agents are unlikely to replace human expertise anytime soon. Companies with messy organizational and technological problems will still need firms like Aubay. I see this firsthand at my current job: some proprietary software was written by a group of engineers who created a quasi-Python language with hastily assembled and cursory documentation. That kind of environment is extremely difficult for AI tools to navigate, at least based on every model I’ve tried on it so far.
At an entry of €43.8, I am buying a 15% earnings grower at a roughly 14x P/E, which is a significant discount to historical averages and larger peers like Capgemini.
Campine (EBR:CAMB)
Despite my initial -10% unrealized loss, my bet in Campine is that the geopolitical scarcity will last: China’s export bans on antimony have transformed Campine into one of the only Western sources for this critical raw material. Antimony is essential for defense applications, solar glass, and flame retardants.
Unlike pure miners, Campine’s lead recycling business provides a massive cash-flow floor. By recycling lead-acid batteries, they capture margins regardless of primary ore prices. This industrial model is ESG-compliant, shielding the company from the European reluctance to deliver mining permits, and from geopolitical resource nationalism… which matters in a context where European countries seek strategic independence.
I am comfortable holding through this month’s volatility as long as Campine’s builds on its recent record EBITDA (€53.4M in H1 2025). This higher revenue was heavily driven by the spike in Antimony prices. I will keep an eye on EBITDA margins. I believe a drop significantly below 10–12% would indicate that either the market has successfully found substitutes for antimony or that high prices have simply destroyed demand.
The 21 names overextension
My objective for the coming quarter is to consolidate the portfolio back into my strongest convictions.
By trimming laggards and concentrating capital, I aim to lower the administrative and tracking workload. In a volatile world, I prefer applying some good advice I got directly from one of Europe’s top fund manager: maintain a shorter list of businesses I can monitor with high intensity over a broad list of interesting names that dilute both my focus and my returns.
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