According to a 2025 study led by robo-advisor Yomoni, 79% of French people believe that betting at the lottery carries less risk than investing in the Stock Market. 65% of the French have never invested in the stock market, and have no intent of doing so.

I was astounded when reading the poll, wondering how gambling is preferred to stock investing in a developed country that owes its high standards of living in part to the market economy and its financial system. Yes, French Social Security assists the average Jean to get unemployment, healthcare, retirement benefits. Does that really excuse snobbing the stock market over Euro millions?

In a casino, the longer you stay, the more likely you are to lose. The house always wins. In the stock market, the longer you stay, the more likely you are to win.

In other words, gambling in the casino is in general much riskier than being invested in a professionally-managed world equity fund.

What is Risk?

The average Jean will tell you it is about “losing money.” And they’re right. But since a Loto ticket only costs €2.20, they feel the risk is negligible.

In practice, Risk is the probability of an outcome. At the lottery, you have a 99.9999% certainty of losing 100% of your stake. In the stock market, while there is volatility, the probability of losing 100% of a diversified portfolio (like an MSCI World ETF) over a 30 year long investment horizon is conservatively and historically near zero.

Extreme Probabilities

The human brain struggles to conceptualize extreme probabilities. If somebody tell us that we have a “1 in 10” chance, we get it. But we struggle to visualize how much worse “1 in 19 million” actually is, leading to poor financial risk assessment.

If the numbers don’t register, let’s try with words! Did you know that the longest book ever written is French? The book ‘A la Recherche du Temps Perdu’ (‘in Search of Lost Time’), written by Marcel Proust, holds the Guinness World Record for the longest novel ever written, containing approximately 1,267,000 words. What better than a French masterpiece to reconcile the French with the stock market?

Now, say the book is the lottery game; you get to bet 2 euros on any word of the novel. If you pick the right word, you win the JACKPOT!

Instead – up to you – you can use the novel to play a different game: you get to invest 2 euros on any word, and each word represent an investment in the stock market, in a MSCI World Equity Fund as an example, that we buy and keep invested for 10 years, 20 years, or 30 years.

The Mathematics of Winning

1 Square = 1 Word in a 1,000-Word Chapter.

MSCI 10Y MSCI 20Y MSCI 30Y French Loto

Don’t Despair, there are more prizes

We kind of knew that we’re not likely to win the jackpot. Don’t despair, here is a list of events much more likely to happen:

• Getting struck by lightning: 1 in 1 million (You are roughly 19 times more likely to be struck by lightning than to win the Loto).
• Being attacked by a shark: 1 in 3.7 million (You are 5 times more likely to be bitten by a shark, even in France).
• Making a profit in the S&P 500 over any 20-year rolling period: >95% Historically almost guaranteed, provided you don’t panic sell, and just buy-and-hold.

How do you compare a small chance of winning a lot with a large chance of winning a little?

Enters ‘Expected Value’

To compare gambling against investing, we must look at Expected Value (EV). The concept of Expected Value strips away the dream and leaves only the math. Take a €5M jackpot:

EV = (Probability of winning × Payout) − Cost

EV = (1 / 19,068,840 × €5,000,000) − €2.20 = –€1.94

This specific €5M payout tier contributes 26 cents to the value of the ticket, but the ticket costs €2.20, so the expected value is -€1.94.

Hang on, other prizes also contribute per their respective probabilities and cash payouts. Sum the respective payouts multiplied by their probabilities, substract the €2.20 ticket cost, et voila, total Loto EV is negative -€0.89. The French are paying for a €2.20 ticket that is actually worth €1.31.

That said, the Loto EV can get positive for big jackpots, say above €25M. But it’s still a bad idea to play, because a positive EV combine with extremely low probabilities only guarantees a profit if you can play an infinite amount of times. In the case of loto, you only have a single lifetime to play (and to read Proust… 15 times over).

The stock market EV

Unlike the set fixed prizes tiers of the loto, the stock market uses continuous probability because it has a near-infinite set of possible returns, using a 7% annualized return rate which is the MSCI World average, and we keep our investment for 10 years.

EV = (€2.20 × (1+7%)^10 − €2.20 = €2.13

So that €2.20 initial capital has an EV of €2.13, meaning a total ending value of €4.33. This shows that an investment in a MSCI Equity World fund could expect to double the invested money if kept invested over the next 10 years. Over a 45-year long career, the €2.20 become €46.20, with the important caveat being that this is based on historical MSCI returns since 1969.

The Cost of Dreaming

Those 60 euros per month, invested in the MSCI World over 40 years, would have returned over €125,000, while the lottery habit will probably destroy over €10,000 over 40 years of life, granted we are not considering inflation.

How long will dreamers dream

The lottery operators are seductive. They dangle massive instant payouts advertisements, and herald glossy mottos such as “100% of lottery winners have bet a wager”.

For all the excellent marketing, the lottery is a tax on people hopes, for little entertainment. Meanwhile, the standard buy-and-hold stock market couldn’t be further away from a casino. It is one of the most powerful wealth-creation solution that most French savers have been culturally conditioned to fear.

Perhaps Yomoni will do another poll in the coming years. Perhaps the 61% savers who believe they don’t have enough money to get started will finally realize that many brokers now allow investing from as little as €1 and will start swapping their gambling habits for healthy investing habits.

Of course, investing carries risks. Long-term profit expectations do not prevent short term 50% crashes, and the future stock market’s rate of return could drop… But I’ve taken the bet that investing will retain a positive EV.

Real-time Experiment

I do not provide financial advice, but I do operate with transparency. If you want to see exactly how I attempt to capture this positive Expected Value in real-time, you can track my portfolio and performance here.

If you are French and not ready to invest in global equities, start by reclaiming your lost capital. Cancel your weekly €10 Loto budget. Set up an automatic transfer of that exact amount into your Livret A or LEP. It carries zero risk and instantly stops the mathematical destruction of your wallet.

Source Methodology: Probabilities are calculated using the standard institutional method of rolling monthly periods. Data is based on historical Net Total Returns (NTR) of global equity indices (e.g., MSCI World), a methodology corroborated by multi-decade historical market research from institutions such as Vanguard and the UBS/Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The post Investing vs. Gambling: 79% of the French are Wrong appeared first on V1 Finance.

TACO means Antimony, Chicken, and Oil

I did not expect Campine to be the top performer this month, but it is now evident that Chinese export bans are biting hard. Western antimony supply is scarce and Campine benefits.

I prefer this game of Chicken

LDC SA is my defensive play. I’m not expecting much volatility here unless an aviary epidemic strikes. I have broken my rule of not letting a position run beyond 10% of the entire portfolio. But I remain convinced that the primary demand for eggs and poultry will keep increasing in Europe for a number of reasons;

• some consumers turn their back on meat due to animal welfare, and eggs is a good compromise.
• red meat has a bad rap healthwise due to cancer fears. Not that I have read those studies in detail, but the concerns are out there.
• many consumers are conscious that climate change is one of the biggest challenge of our time and have reduced CO2 and CH4 intensive meats
• consumers allocate a growing share of their wallets to expenses other than food, and inflation bites hard. Poultry and eggs are cheaper aminal proteins than beef or pork.
• LDC is exceptionally well managed and has been growing revenues steadily while growing high value brands

Deep Sea Value: Saipem

Saipem is surfing the return of energy services in the context of the Hormuz blockade. Middle East tensions have driven oil higher. As a result, offshore backlogs are expanding. Some merger rumors have added fuel. I was considering taking profits, but the rest of the European equities in the portfolio remain quite vulnerable to high oil prices for long. I prefer to hold Saipem in case of a protracted Iran crisis.

The portolio still has 21 names. One too many! I’ll be working on finding the one to consolidate.

The post +31.5% Portfolio Apr 2026: Not chickening out appeared first on V1 Finance.

Invested right before the storm

My timing preceded a geopolitics shock with US and Israel’s war on Iran, which has reintroduced a fear premium to European equities. While the portfolio maintains a healthy +19.4% growth at the time of its 1-year birthday, it has suffered from the recent market turbulence.

Aubay (EPA:AUB)

Aubay reported a strong 2025 revenue growth (+11.4%) and is guiding for further margin expansion to 9.5% in 2026. Its very low debt-to-equity ratio (22%) should make it resilient to temporary activity slowdowns.

I have read many negative headlines suggesting that its business model is threatened by AI. I agree that AI will increasingly take over much of the thinking and coding, and will require fewer programmers and consultants making slides. However, my thesis is that much of Aubay’s value proposition lies in implementing IT solutions within legacy environments and supporting cybersecurity and infrastructure. These areas where AI agents are unlikely to replace human expertise anytime soon. Companies with messy organizational and technological problems will still need firms like Aubay. I see this firsthand at my current job: some proprietary software was written by a group of engineers who created a quasi-Python language with hastily assembled and cursory documentation. That kind of environment is extremely difficult for AI tools to navigate, at least based on every model I’ve tried on it so far.

At an entry of €43.8, I am buying a 15% earnings grower at a roughly 14x P/E, which is a significant discount to historical averages and larger peers like Capgemini.

Campine (EBR:CAMB)

Despite my initial -10% unrealized loss, my bet in Campine is that the geopolitical scarcity will last: China’s export bans on antimony have transformed Campine into one of the only Western sources for this critical raw material. Antimony is essential for defense applications, solar glass, and flame retardants.

Unlike pure miners, Campine’s lead recycling business provides a massive cash-flow floor. By recycling lead-acid batteries, they capture margins regardless of primary ore prices. This industrial model is ESG-compliant, shielding the company from the European reluctance to deliver mining permits, and from geopolitical resource nationalism… which matters in a context where European countries seek strategic independence.

I am comfortable holding through this month’s volatility as long as Campine’s builds on its recent record EBITDA (€53.4M in H1 2025). This higher revenue was heavily driven by the spike in Antimony prices. I will keep an eye on EBITDA margins. I believe a drop significantly below 10–12% would indicate that either the market has successfully found substitutes for antimony or that high prices have simply destroyed demand.

The 21 names overextension

My objective for the coming quarter is to consolidate the portfolio back into my strongest convictions.

By trimming laggards and concentrating capital, I aim to lower the administrative and tracking workload. In a volatile world, I prefer applying some good advice I got directly from one of Europe’s top fund manager: maintain a shorter list of businesses I can monitor with high intensity over a broad list of interesting names that dilute both my focus and my returns.

The post +19.4% Portfolio Mar 2026: Untimely Liquidity appeared first on V1 Finance.

On a winter morning off the Champs-Élysées, I stepped inside one of Europe’s best-performing small cap stock-picking firms. To find out what separates it from the pack.

A few weeks before, past 1:00 AM on a Tuesday, I was caught in that hazy middle ground between a long workday and much-needed sleep. With a podcast replaying in the background, I heard Romain Burnand, founder of Moneta Asset Management, extend an unusual invitation: a chance to step inside their Morning Meeting and see the gears turn for myself. In a burst of late-night curiosity, I applied right then and there. To my surprise, a few weeks later, I found myself at 36 rue Marbeuf, coffee in hand, waiting to see if the reality lived up to the reputation.

There were a dozen or so analysts and fund managers, the founder, and Kawalec – the other long-term partner and lead manager.

A Morning Meeting Without Theatrics

Burnand addressed them from his own station. He is calling on each analyst by name as they stood at their desks. One by one, they share what their own research has uncovered, the latest news flow, and insights from broker reports. No meeting room. No slides. Substance over form.

In a separate room, a portfolio manager then walked us through another company. A Spanish renewables developer that made the strategic decision to leave the overcrowded, low‑price Iberian power market. The company decided instead to build solar farms in Chile’s Atacama desert to power the mining industry.

The simple elegance of the thesis was striking. Use some of the world’s most intense sunlight to charge vast Chinese batteries by day. Sell scarce and premium-priced electricity to miners at night. Others saw the end of a subsidy boom in Spain. Moneta saw a business willing to migrate to a tougher geography in exchange for better economics. A successful investment.

The same analyst described a rising French discount retailer where the share price looked respectable but something was fishy. The team had scraped thousands of Google reviews and discovered a sour turn in loyal customers’ tone. Complaints about messy aisles, empty shelves, muddled product ranges. Non‑financial data, largely ignored by the market, betrayed a franchise potentially drifting off course.

This is the Moneta way. A patient search to arbitrage the markets’ irrational infatuations, or excessive disenchantements with specific stocks.

Then, a little later, Romain Burnand, the man whose performance has multiplied capital roughly twenty‑twofold in twenty‑two years walked in.

Fund Performances Defying Gravity

In a world intoxicated by American tech, it is easy to forget what a 22x return actually means. Turn €1 into €22 over 22 years and you are compounding at roughly $15\%$ a year.

Outside finance, that kind of steady compounding is almost absurd. If you could increase the weight you can lift in the gym by 15% every year, starting from 50 kilos, after two decades you’d be casually hoisting the better part of a small car. I struggle to wrap my head around just how consistently strong their performance has been.

Most European equity funds have not been hoisting small cars. Over the past two decades, European indices have delivered middling single‑digit annual returns. The overwhelming majority of active managers have trailed even that. By any reasonable standard, sustaining a mid‑teens annualised return in smid French equities, across crashes, crises and 20 years of Europe “missing out” per competitiveness reports, puts Burnand’s record close to the territory normally reserved for names like Peter Lynch or John Templeton.

Yet, from my experience, outside France’s investing circles, his name hardly registers. In a sense, Romain Burnand resembles the kind of stock he likes to buy: under‑followed, quietly compounding in a corner of the market most global investors barely glance at.

No Magic Formula

I asked him during the workshop if Moneta had any proprietary indicator the market was missing. He smiled, and did not pretend to possess a secret formula.

“Unfortunately, no,” he said in substance. “And if we did, we certainly wouldn’t talk about it.”

He did heed caution on corporate debt.

Markets, he argued, swing between two extremes. In good times, leverage is celebrated: cheap borrowing is labelled “capital optimisation”. Balance sheets bloated with debt are shrugged off as efficient.

Then a crisis arrives, rates rise or liquidity vanishes – and suddenly, the very same debt is a mortal sin. Companies under stress are forced to dump assets or dilute shareholders through emergency capital raises at miserable prices.

There is no universal safe leverage ratio. It depends on the nature of the cash flows. A real estate group dependent on refinancing has a very different margin of safety from a utility with recurring revenues. During the Covid shock, well‑run companies refinanced long and cheap when rates hit zero. Others, less disciplined, will spend years digging themselves out.

Moneta’s edge here is prosaic but by evidence successful: detailed spreadsheets. Headline debt/EBITDA, debt maturities, covenants, and the character of cash flows. The market is emotive about debt. First euphoric, then horrified. A firm that simply tracks the arithmetic can arbitrage between names unfairly “massacred”, as Burnand puts it, and those treated as indestructible when they are not.

No magic indicator, then. Just discipline, and work. Serves me right for asking for a shortcut! That’s clearly not how they roll.

A Reluctant Activist

Burnand insists Moneta is not an activist shop, and the firm does not go hunting for broken companies to fix. But he is not passive either: “We are not passivists!” he jokes.

When corporate actions threaten to bulldoze minority shareholders, he has shown a quiet willingness to fight.

He told us the story of a listed French company born from industrial know‑how in gas purification. Its business: turning methane from landfill into renewable gas under long‑term fixed‑price contracts. It was industrially sound but financially ill‑managed. The company funded its growth via repeated capital increases. The share price duly collapsed; banks demanded a deep discount on the next rights issue, and retail investors were furious.

Management’s solution was to sell the company to a private‑equity fund, and blame “the market” for not understanding them. The founders kept a large stake. Small shareholders were shown the door.

Moneta did something unusual. Instead of walking away or grumbling in private, they proposed a structure that allowed them to stay on board. They offered a sweetener: a premium on the selling price to small holders so they could buy a larger slice of the available shares. It improved the fairness of the deal and anchored themselves as a long‑term partner to a business they liked. Precisely at the moment when others were giving up.

The lesson for Burnand was not that activism pays, but that information is never symmetrical. Minority shareholders must occasionally be willing to challenge the cosy alignment of corporates, banks and advisors.

This is hardly the caricature of the French fund manager trading CAC 40 names on morning research calls. It is painstaking, niche, sometimes unglamorous work around small and mid‑caps that most global funds do not have the time, or size flexibility, to bother with.

Europe’s Unfashionable Garden

How is Moneta’s heavy lifting not more famous?

One answer is geography. Continental European equities, including French small‑caps, have been long‑term underweights in global portfolios. The flows, the narratives, the benchmarks… they all point to America. When Europe is represented, it’s typically through a few megacaps, like LVMH, ASML or Novo Nordisk. As France grapples with fiscal deterioration, the market remains wary of protracted political psychodrama where the noise of budget deficits and dissolutions often obscures the underlying resilience of the companies themselves.

Burnand’s remains unperturbed. The past year’s turmoil, he notes, created opportunities in resolutely French names: banks, infrastructure companies, service groups with domestic anchors. There valuations were marked down aggressively. Many of those businesses, in reality, derive a majority of their cash flows from outside France.

European indices themselves are more global than their labels suggest. A luxury conglomerate with only a quarter of revenue in Europe is less a French stock than a global consumer franchise. Airbus sells planes to the world, not to the CAC 40. To apply a simple sovereign‑risk filter to such names is, in his view, probably more dogma than analysis.

There is an irony here. In an era when Europe’s equity markets are dismissed as backwaters condemned to underperformance, a little Parisian boutique has quietly produced a track record that rivals US legendary money managers.

A Room Full of Retail investors

What makes Burnand unusual is not just his process, but his audience. He takes the time to welcome packs of retail investors like myself into his morning routine, and then stands patiently through questions that range well beyond his mandate.

In an age when billionaire CIOs hide behind investor‑relations teams and scripted webcasts, the founder of one of the most successful stock-picking strategy in Europe is fielding impromptu questions about Bitcoin from small savers clutching notebooks. He does it without condescension or visible impatience. This accessibility is not merely a courtesy; it is the hallmark of a manager who has earned the trust of institutional giants and individual investors alike, commanding the credibility to raise €100M in seed capital for the launch of their new fund with and without banking middle men. It is a rare blend of technical authority and genuine human engagement.

It was in this spirit that I committed what, in retrospect, felt like a minor heresy. Here was a man who has outperformed 99% of his peers, through the 2008 GFC and the Euro crisis, backed by a team of analysts who spend ten hours a day modelling a universe of only a few hundred stocks. And I asked him, in front of everyone, how a solo retail investor, with a full‑time job and a handful of evenings to spare, might possibly hope to go-it-alone, or copy any of this.

But, he did not laugh me out of the room.

He said: “I have been a solo investor for some time, after all.”

Burnand’s answer was at once sobering and encouraging. No, a part‑time individual cannot replicate today’s Moneta set‑up: a compact team focused on 300 names, deep management access, industrial‑strength data, years of accumulated knowledge.

But there is a small, real edge available to individuals: liquidity and proximity.

A retail investor, he suggested, should not own thirty or forty stocks. That is institutional behaviour without institutional resources. Instead, you can afford to specialise shamelessly. Start where you work, or with sectors you understand viscerally: a supplier you see up close, a technology you are genuinely expert in, an industry you follow out of passion rather than FOMO. Read the annual reports of the smaller companies in that niche. You do not need to meet management; in some ways, avoiding the charisma of executives can help you keep a cooler head.

The danger is not in being concentrated; it is in being in love. You must be willing to sell when the story changes, not just when the share price hurts. And you must resist hyperactive and jittery trading. A portfolio, he argued, should be treated more like an apartment you intend to live in for a while: you do not wake up every morning wondering whether to flip it.

The Proximity Advantage

Paradoxically, the small investor has two advantages professionals envy. The first is size: your orders will never move the market, so you can enter or exit tiny, illiquid names that are simply off‑limits to big funds (Moneta even had to limit subcriptions to its micro-cap fund, probably for liquidity reasons). I suspect the second is time horizon: nobody is calling you every quarter to justify why a stock is underperforming an index. You can afford to wait for good theses to play out… or to admit, without career risk, that they were wrong.

There is no recipe, no magic ratio. If Burnand has a single non‑negotiable indicator, it is still the elementary stuff: debt, cash flows, the instinctive suspicion of companies that resort to large acquisitions as a cure for their own growth problems. “The company has to be healthy first,” he likes to say in effect, “and then do the small bolt‑on deals that extend its reach without blowing up the balance sheet.”

Data, AI and the art of asking questions

For a shop that trades on human judgement, Moneta is far from technophobic. They employ statisticians who sift through non‑financial signals: customs data, patterns in online reviews, job postings. They use tools like AlphaSense to scan the deluge of research and news, and even ChatGPT to condense the economic history of a country or untangle obscure industries.

But here too, Burnand’s attitude is against “l’air du temps”. The point of AI is not that it will magically spit out a trade; it is that it can amplify the value of good questions. The language model can blend old and new information into a passable narrative, but it cannot, so far, see the cases coming, or calculate when leverage has crossed a line from tool to trap, unless a human has framed the problem first.

In the end, the hard part has not changed: deciding when the market has gone too far in its love or its disdain for a company, and being willing to take the other side before the narrative turns.

An Undervalued Legend

France and Europe markets are not fashionable. Their stock markets attract less capital, their economies have grown more slowly, and their political dramas make global headlines more often than their corporate champions do. In that unfashionable garden, Romain Burnand has quietly cultivated one of the most remarkable long‑term records in European asset management, delivering for his investors in a way that invites comparison with the great Anglo‑Saxon legends, even if he would probably be embarrassed by the analogy.

Why is he and his associate Andrzej Kawalec not more famous across borders? Perhaps because fame, like capital, follows narratives, and Europe’s narrative has been one of relative decline. Perhaps because Moneta has no captive retail distribution machine, no glossy advertising campaigns, no desire to be a household name. To my knowledge, they haven’t written a bestseller book on investing (but I would read it). I suspect it suits them well to remain small, independent and under-the-radar. That gives them more ability than becoming a set of beacon or market trackers.

Or perhaps, more simply, because like many of the mispriced companies he favours, Burnand’s reputation is still in that curious market phase where the numbers are undeniable but the story has yet to catch up. Like any under‑followed asset, the legend may simply need more time to compound.

Solace for the Retail investor

To me, this workshop was oddly reassuring. It suggests that in a world obsessed with star tech managers and meme stocks, there is still room for quiet compounding born of discipline, curiosity and an almost old‑fashioned respect for balance sheets. Even if we will never clone Moneta’s research engine, we can still borrow some of its habits. The insistence on understanding a few things well. The scepticism toward leverage. The willingness to look where others are not looking.

I left 36 rue Marbeuf with something different than a secret formula: a blueprint for my V1 Portfolio. Burnand proves that even today, a deep command of the annual report remains a rampart against capital loss. The rest is just market noise. The real edge is found in the work that others are too lazy to do.

The post The Moneta Anomaly appeared first on V1 Finance.

I asked myself, can the European average salary allow enough savings and investments to build €1 million in personal wealth?

In Germany, France, and the UK, a €1 million net worth puts you in the top 5% wealthiest adults.

I started texting my German and English friends, to discuss:

• % of salary paid to social security and taxes

• € spending they require each month to live comfortably

• How they invest their savings, and what capital tax they pay

Most salaried workers build wealth by earning their salary, and investing whatever savings are left after paying their taxes and their living expenses. Over the years, the investment gains compound and contribute an ever increasing share of the growth in net worth.

The Take-Home Pay

Matt, Hannah, and Louis are 30-year olds with €65k in savings. They earn a salary equivalent to 50,000 EUR.

Matt

Matt works in the UK with a £43,400 (~€50k) gross salary as of the time of writing. The UK has a high personal allowance: the first £12,570 chunk of his salary is tax-free, and his social contributions are lower. He’s got more cash, but is vulnerable if a health issue hits, and gets a lower state pension.

Take home pay: €3,308 a month

Hannah

Hannah earns €50,000 gross, and pays more labor taxes than Matt to the German state. Germany’s social security system is comprehensive but expensive, taking nearly 21% of her gross pay just for pension, health, unemployment coverage. Germany’s progressive tax scale hits the middle class quickly.

Take home pay: €2,610 a month

Louis

Louis also earns €50,000 gross. His actual income tax is low compared to Hannah, despite being closer to an upper middle class salary in France. But, social contributions are higher (~23% of gross), as healthcare costs and retirement pension are largely covered by the state.

Take home pay: €2,710 a month

The Cost of Living and the Savings Rate

Since we’re talking about the middle class, we will focus on tier 2 cities. In Western Europe, a large majority of the population is urban, but on average does not live in the economic capital of the country.

Manchester

Matt witnessed rapid price growth, but Manchester still offers him a much better cost basis than London. Matt’s utilities are high, but his transport costs are manageable as he stays near the tram. His groceries are kept competitive by UK supermarket wars (Aldi v Tesco).

Hamburg

Hannah lives in a wealthy port city, and while cheaper than Munich, it is not cheap. Germany’s energy costs are among the highest in Europe. Hannah’s Warmmiete (rent including heating/water) is a significant chunk of her budget.

Lyon

The 2nd largest French city, Lyon offers a nice quality of life for the price. It retains regional rents lower than Paris. French law often requires employers to reimburse 50% of commuting costs, making Louis’ transport almost negligible.

Matt leads the pack. His lower tax burden gives him a massive head start in dry powder to invest in the stock market.

Matt ends the month with €1,180 savings, after cost and taxes.

Hannah has the best worker protections, but high rent and taxes slows down how much money she can invest.

Hannah is left with €506 savings, after cost and taxes.

Louis is a very close second. The lower cost of living in Lyon almost compensates for the higher French taxes.

Louis saves €1,050 after cost and taxes.

Different Capital Tax Rules

In Europe, the taxman collects a slice of your salary; but also a share of the success of your invested savings. The strategies available to Matt, Hannah, and Louis create a massive divide in their final net wealth.

United Kingdom

Capital gains taxes range from 20% to 24%. Except:

ISA: invest up to £20,000 annually for 100% tax-free growth and withdrawals forever.

Workplace pensions: Invest from gross pay to save on Income Tax and 8% National Insurance until age 57.

SIPP: private pension offering an immediate 20% to 45% state top-up on contributions until age 57.

Germany

Capital gains tax is 26.4%. Except:

Sparerpauschbetrag: Realize up to €1,000 in gains per year across all brokerages completely tax-free.

Altersvorsorgedepot (2026): Invest in a SIPP-like account to receive a 20% state subsidy on desposits (up to €600 yearly) plus tax-free growth until retirement.

Speculation Rule: Sell assets like crypto or gold 100% tax-free by holding them for at least 12 months.

France

Capital flat Tax is 31.4%, except for:

PEA/PME equity accounts up to €225k in European equities to eliminate income tax after 5 years, leaving only an 18.2% social charge.

Assurance Vie: accounts allowing withdrawals of up to €4,600 in gains per year income tax-free once the policy is at least 8 years old.

To Each Their Own: Who Wins the €1 Million Race?

We assume all three friends decide to invest mostly in stocks, generating a 7% gross return annually.

So, who has it better?

Matt, whose financial life is less reliant on state pensions and healthcare coverage, wins the race. Matt reaches €1M equivalent at 52 years old, Louis at 54, and Hannah at 59.

That said, the average salary in Germany is actually higher than France, and Louis’ cheap cost of living in Lyon may not compare to Hamburg. What if all 3 friends had the same costs, and a salary at their respective countries’ average? I checked. Matt situation doesn’t change, but Hannah and Louis fortune reverse. Hannah reach her first million at 55 years old, while Louis has to wait to be 62 years old. That is mainly due the average annual French salary being ~€10k lower than Germany’s.

A word on limitations: while these tax-advantaged pillars provide a massive head start, the Race to €1 Million isn’t run on a level track. Liquidity and Regulatory Risk remain the biggest hurdles: locking capital into a SIPP, PER, or the new German Altersvorsorgedepot means your wealth is technically paper-rich but inaccessible until your late 50s. Also, the very tax benefits that make these accounts attractive, like the UK’s tax-free forever ISA or France’s 8-year Assurance Vie rule, are subject to the whims of future governments, as our Dutch friends experienced this week with their new tax going for vote on unrealized gains. A single budget change can move the finish line just as you’re about to cross it.

Finally, our above models assume consistent market returns and stable exchange rates. Even though we assume 2% inflation, the nature of expenses will evolve; Louis may have to cover for childcare soon. We should keep in mind that a million in 2045 buys significantly less than it does today.

The data shows that a €1 million net worth is achievable on a €50,000 salary, but the timeline depends heavily on your local tax environment. While the UK offers higher immediate savings and tax-free growth through ISAs, France and Germany trade that speed for better social protections, requiring a longer commitment to reach the same goal.

Key Takeaways

Despite identical gross salaries, Matt (UK) saves nearly double what Hannah (Germany) can, in part due to lower initial tax and social drag. Reaching the million-euro mark faster often means having less state-provided security in the short term.

Success requires using specific national accounts like ISA, PEA, or Altersvorsorgedepot to shield gains from capital taxes.

In Europe, the €1 million milestone is a 25-to-35-year marathon. By choosing the right investment mix, your portfolio eventually generates enough lift to sustain itself for the long haul.

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This month, I did not touch my portfolio. No rebalancing. Bought nothing. Sold nothing.

Cruising Discipline

I like to compare investing to flying. Sometimes, the best thing to do is just to stay the course. That is not to say that there won’t be any turbulences on the way. One sure thing is that every transaction creates costs. Getting jittery limits your gains over time.

Vusion took a massive -35% hit this month

Vusion dropped by 20% over 4 trading sessions mid-jan. This may happen when hordes of retail investors like you and I own an expensive company whose profit is very concentrated on a single client: Walmart. Even post-drop, the price-to-sales of 2.1x remains much higher than its comparable peers. To add insult to injury, the stock was downgraded by a BNP Paribas analyst right in the middle of the storm. Vusion products have a smarter power management system (railing in store shelves), and use standard bluetooth. Meaning any smartphone can connect to the price tag system. I believe the potential remains strong: there is a reason why Vusion won the contract with Walmart in the first place.

Parrot is also stalling: dropped over 30% in a month

The reduction I did just 2 months ago proved to be a critical move. Parrot SA has seen its share price tumble roughly 33% over the last month to trade near €5.58. It remains a loss-making company despite its promising militarized drones (not “military” drones, as pointed out by the founder, because these do not carry weapons). The lack of profits continues to weigh on the stock. The Q4 2025 results are scheduled for release on Feb 20. Investors are pricing a disappointing report. Parrot has tailored a niche for itself, and if the company turns a profit, its stock price is going to skyrocket.

The energy theme runs hot, with gas exploration. Saipem started the year with a $425 million contract for the Sakarya gas field. Their 2026 construction fleet is already fully booked.

Elsewhere, Fugro has started a rebound from the depth on the back of cost cutting action and more dynamism in the offshore wind market.

My portfolio discipline involves selecting a good mix of high margin businesses with growing sales and a handful of growth companies likely to be soon profitable that can deliver asymetrical returns.

Let’s carry forward without panic buying a rally, only to end up panic selling a dip!

This page is solely a record of how I manage my own personal account and is shared for informational and curiosity purposes only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, nor an invitation to copy my portfolio. I am not an investment professional. Invest at your own risk.

The post +29.1% Portfolio Feb 2026: Holding Steady appeared first on V1 Finance.

My best performing assets were held when my position sizes were smaller and very concentrated. Parrot SA was my first position in 1H26, and strongly contributed to the Time Weighted perf.

New holdings

This month, I have been looking for high-value industrials trading at a higher P/E. While my core portfolio remains in engineering and infrastructure, I am adding a layer of protection through companies that own their formulas and intellectual property. Robertet and Virbac offer two things my portfolio lacks: Pricing Power and Global Consumption cycles that are less tied to European interest rates and economy.

Robertet (could this be the Hermès of fragrance?)

A family-owned and French fragrance manufacturer and the world’s top specialist in natural flavors. They own the full value chain, from flower fields to boutiques.

What I liked are the H1 2025 margins which stand a decent 22.5% EBITDA, the low debt, and the ability to generate ample free cash flows.

Their environmental engagements and their positioning on the clean label trend (natural products, no chems, simple and safe products) creates differentiation with competitors, and they have expansion plans in Asia and Latin America.

Robertet derives a lot of sales revenue from the USA, and is acquiring local players with objectives to meet EUR1B revenue. I am worried that persistent USD weakness may hinder sales results, but I get comfort in the Price Earning Ratio at 18x which is below the 10 year average closer to 26x.

Virbac (France, health industrial)

A global vet pharma focusing on pets and livestock. When reading their annual report, they reported growing sales on all continents and pretty much across all product segments, except Equines in 2024; but the first half of 2025 points to recovery.

Financials: Robust 2024; 2025 is trending toward a earnings beat scenario with 7%+ growth.

Valuation: 22x P/E, slightly more expensive than Robertet.

Virbac is expanding in the high-margin Petfood and dermatology segments which could become new growth engines.

Going forward

I have had an entire year to search and read about small European companies. Looking back, I have added 19 names to the portfolio and reduced only one (Parrot SA). As a non-professional DIY investor, I can confirm: tracking corporate and financial updates for 20 companies is time-consuming.

For 2026, I will likely cap the portfolio at 20 names. This year is about ensuring each company earns its weight. I need to build a more structured review system. I mean, how does one decide how much to allocate to a fast-growing but unprofitable name like Parrot SA versus a high quality business that generates cash? I’m considering a strict weight cap of, say 3%, for any position that isn’t yet profitable. Stay tuned!

The New Additions:

• Robertet: On a standalone basis, it looks fantastic (22.5% EBITDA margins, no debt). My only hesitation is the added USD exposure, especially with top banks predicting dollar depreciation in 2026.
• Virbac: More protection here against the tariffs risk, since Virbac is moving toward producing 80% of its US sales locally. This adds risk to the portfolio if USD keeps weakening, but some diversification is welcome on my very EUR concentrated stocks.

I take comfort that no single line exceeds 10% of the portfolio. I’ve managed to diversify (with a strong French bias, bien sûr) before any major adverse events. For 2026, it’s about quality over quantity. I’m done scouting and screening the 800+ names in the MSCI Europe Small Cap index; now, I’m focused on managing the champions I’ve already found.

This page is solely a record of how I manage my own personal account and is shared for informational and curiosity purposes only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an invitation to copy my portfolio or make any financial decisions. I am not an investment professional. If you are considering investing, please consult a qualified financial professional before making any decisions.

The post +25.2% Portfolio Jan 2025: Europeans with a US footprint appeared first on V1 Finance.

Purpose

The table is a visual comparison of the strategic investment outlooks from global banks (the “Houses”), including Fidelity, UBS, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and others. The primary purpose is to quickly map the landscape of top-tier asset managers’ convictions for 2026. This matrix attempts to distill hundreds of pages of complex research into a standardized, color-coded consensus representing the conviction strength across the board.

How Do These Views Help Investors?

While these outlooks from top banks aren’t specific advice, they are an incredible tool for strategic thinking. They are like a weather map showing where the world’s biggest investors may direct the money. When most firms agree on AI Opportunities (85%) and Emerging Market bonds (82%), they tell us what may grow along with the economy in 2026. The table highlights lesser known opportunities, like the Asset-Backed Securities (“ABS”) and Collateralized Loan Obligations (“CLOs”).

Total Returns (including all coupons re-invested): Last 3 Years

I made this chart from the excellent tool from ETFreplay.com. This looks at total return; it shows how the total value of your account would have grown over the past 3 years. For a $100,000 investment.

Google and Yahoo finance show price-only charts. They do not capture the high-yielding coupons that CLOs and MBS ETFs pay every year. Look at the BKLN Invesco or State Street total performance instead.

Blackrock also launched a EUR CLOs ETF under accumulating format. Re-invested coupons may be more tax-efficient for me, as a European investor, rather than BKLN.

That said, ABS products triggered the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. They may have traded their toxic past for a more respectable place in a portfolio. But their high yields imply greater credit risks too.

The top banks comparison also surfaces a healthy debate. Invesco suggests caution on expensive US stocks, while others can’t resist betting the AI theme will keep fueling the entire US market dominance. Meanwhile, State Street is not as allergic to duration (long dated bonds), mentioning opportunities provided investors are selective.

❝ US Treasury returns from current levels are more likely to be in the low-to-mid-single digit range over the coming year. We favor the 5- to 10-year part of the curve. ❞

State Street 2026 Market Outlook

Where The Money is Flowing

Several dominant investment themes emerge for 2026.

Most Anticipate US Dollar To Weaken

One of the most unified view across the matrix is the negative outlook for the US Dollar Index. Firms like UBS and Fidelity anticipate that US interest rate cuts and the strategic weakening of the dollar will push capital toward other currencies and emerging markets.

For EUR-based investors, this is a clear warning on currency risk. Holding a standard S&P 500 ETF while living and spending in EUR introduces a massive hidden bet on the USD. Moving forward, I will continue diversifying my currency exposure or utilizing EUR-hedged funds to ensure my US equity returns aren’t erased by a depreciating Dollar.

Risks That Could Disrupt the Outlook

The top banks outlooks consistently flagged several structural risks that warrant careful monitoring.

Sticky inflation
Fidelity and others warn that inflation may remain higher than market expectations, which would impede the Federal Reserve’s path to easing and suppress long-term bond returns.

Geopolitics and Tariffs
UBS and Goldman Sachs cite US-China strategic rivalry and new tariffs as key sources of potential volatility, noting that policy remains a primary market driver.

Fiscal Anxiety and Debt
Elevated deficits and debt sustainability are driving long dated bond yields and require a deep understanding from investors, even if a crisis may not be imminent.

AI Disappointment
UBS notes that a major disappointment in the progress or monetization of AI could bring markets back to earth, as much of the current optimism is tied to this single theme.

The only certainty is that the consensus will be tested by reality in 2026.

Do you think the “Smart Money” will get it right?

Sources used: State Street & TAA, Blackrock, Vanguard & TAA, Fidelity, UBS, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley & BEAT, Goldman Sachs, Invesco, Pimco, Amundi, T Rowe & TAA, AXA, BNPP

The post 2026 Market Outlook: What Top Banks are Forecasting appeared first on V1 Finance.

New holdings

Added some new industrials were added this month

Koninklijke BAM Groep NV (construction):

Strong order book and improving EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA for the first half of 2025 was up 40%, with the Net Result up 85%. A share buyback programme has pushed up the price in 2025, let’s see if this can keep going in 2026.

Exosens SAS (France, technology/industrial)

Exosens develops night vision gear. NATO budgets are rising considerably across Europe, and the German army in particular is investing heavily and signed a big contract (100’000 binoculars!) with Exosens. Margins are excellent (EBITDA ~30%) and Exosens is working to scale up its production. Now, the stock price has more than doubled this year, but the geopolitical context tells me the Defense industry growth will keep growing.

LISI SA (France, aerospace):

They manufacture bolts, joints, links and such to the aerospace industry. Airbus A350 and A320 are fitted with their products, and the increased production rates for Airbus aircrafts may bode well for LISI SA. The operating margin is still sub 10% but growing fast and that is exciting.

Took Profit

Parrot SA has had an excellent year, validating its technology (reconnaissance and surveillance drones) through usage in US Army exercises. Despite the clear long-term tailwind from drone warfare and civil applications, the lack of consistent profits remains a core concern. With the higher stock price, and I am choosing to lock in some gains now.

This page is solely a record of how I manage my own personal account and is shared for informational and curiosity purposes only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an invitation to copy my portfolio or make any financial decisions. I am not an investment professional. If you are considering investing, please consult a qualified financial professional before making any decisions.

The post +17.4% Portfolio Dec 2025: Defense and Industry appeared first on V1 Finance.